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January 15, 2021 JessicaMarket Update0

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many households are on forbearance plans and it could lead to a foreclosure crisis this year.

At the onset of the economic disruptions caused by the COVID pandemic, the government quickly put into place forbearance plans to allow homeowners to remain in their homes without making their monthly mortgage payments. Today, almost three million households are actively in a forbearance plan. Though 29.4% of those in forbearance have continued to stay current on their payments, many have not.

Yanling Mayer, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, recently revealed:

“A distributional analysis of forborne loans’ payment status reveals that more than one third (39.1%) of all forborne loans are now 150+ days behind payment, while as many as 1-in-4 (25.5%) are 180+ days past due.”

These homeowners have been given permission to not make their payments and go into forbearance plans, but the question now is: how many of them will be able to catch up after their forbearance program ends? There’s speculation that a forthcoming wave of foreclosures could be the result, and that could lead to another crash in home values like we saw a decade ago.

However, today’s situation is different than the 2006-2008 housing crisis as many homeowners have tremendous amounts of equity in their homes.

What are the experts saying about Forbearance Plans?

Over the last 30 days, several industry experts have weighed in on this subject.

Michael Sklarz, President at Collateral Analytics:

“We may very well see a meaningful increase in the number of homes listed for sale as these borrowers choose to sell at what is arguably an intermediate top in the market and downsize to more affordable homes rather than face foreclosure.”

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American:

“The foreclosure process is based on two steps. First, the homeowner suffers an adverse economic shock…leading to the homeowner becoming delinquent on their mortgage. However, delinquency by itself is not enough to send a mortgage into foreclosure. With enough equity, a homeowner has the option of selling their home, or tapping into their equity through a refinance, to help weather the economic shock. It is a lack of sufficient equity, the second component of the dual trigger, that causes a serious delinquency to become a foreclosure.”

Don Layton, Senior Industry Fellow at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University:

“With a greater cushion of equity, troubled homeowners have dramatically improved options: a greater ability to access funding (e.g. home equity lines) to keep paying monthly expenses until family finances might recover, improved ability to qualify for and support a loan modification, and, if push comes to shove, the ability to sell the home and monetize their increased net worth while reducing monthly payment obligations. So, what should lenders and servicers expect: a large number of foreclosures or only a modest increase? I believe the latter.”

With today’s positive equity situation, many homeowners will be able to use a loan modification or refinance to stay in their homes. If not, some will go to foreclosure, but most will be able to sell and walk away with their equity.

Won’t the additional homes on the market impact prices?

Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) sell at a significant discount. If homeowners sell instead of going into foreclosure, the impact on the housing market will be much less severe.

We must also realize there is currently an unprecedented lack of inventory on the market. Just last week, realtor.com explained:

“Nationally, the number of homes for sale was down 39.6%, amounting to 449,000 fewer homes for sale than last December.”

It’s important to remember that there weren’t enough homes for sale even then, and inventory has only continued to decline.

The market has the potential to absorb half a million homes this year without it causing home values to depreciate.

Bottom Line about Forbearance Plans

The pandemic has led to both personal and economic hardships for many American households. The overall residential real estate market, however, has weathered the storm and will continue to do so in 2021.


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November 2, 2020 JessicaMarket Update0

Bay Area Market indicators are often seasonal in nature with Q2 typically being  the period of highest demand and in the mid-winter holiday period being the period of lowest activity. Through this Bay Area Market Update, you will be able to see the major Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) pertaining to the real estate market at the end of October 2020.

The pandemic and shelter -in – place deeply affected the early Q2 2020 market but a large rebound occurred soon there after. As was the case in other large condo Market around the bay area Santa Clara County condo Market has been softer than the House Market .

The higher the percentage of listings accepting offers going in the contract, the stronger the demand As compared to the supply of listings for sale. 50%+ = a high demand market 60%+= very high demand.

The median condo price in

Santa Clara county is $715,000

Oakland area $658,000

San Mateo $850,000

San Francisco $1,250,000

Condo Market Update:

These are the major condo markets in the bay area within the counties condo markets have been significantly weaker than house markets since the pandemic.

Seasonal fluctuations are common, and it’s not unusual for median sale prices to peak for the year in spring (Q2)

Average, buyers bought significantly larger homes in Q3 2020 as compared to sales in recent years. Home size is one of the several factors of course, change and fair market value is often another in shifting median sales prices. These values reflect the combined average dollar per square foot value for the entire county. Seasonal factors also play a role in quarterly values.

The average home sales price by city Q3 2020

Los Altos hills: $4,350,000

Los Altos: $3,330,000

Palo Alto: $3,025,000

Saratoga: $2,950,000

Los Gatos: $2,470,000

Cupertino: $2,300,000

Mountain View: $2,250,000

Sunnyvale: $1,916,000

Campbell: $1,480,000

Santa Clara: $1,475,000

San Jose: $1,230,000

Milpitas: $1,210,000

Morgan Hill: $1,125,000

Gilroy: $826,500

County condos: $715,000

Number of Sales Reported in Q(3)

The city of San Jose had 1436 house sales reported in the quarter. The county of Santa Clara had 585 condo sales within the quarter

The city of San Jose had 2200 active house listings in the Quarter. The county of Santa Clara had 1260 active condo listings in the Quarter

Quarter (1-3) up to date

Since the beginning of the pandemic we’ve seen a very competitive market. Homes are going well above asking price and averaging a week on the market. It’s a great opportunity for first time buyers due to the low interest rates however, it is to the point where we’re in multiple offer market and you have to be very competitive in order to get your offer accepted.

This competitive market update is great for sellers and harder for buyers but, Keeping my clients on their A game to ensure we are the best offer is what I have  been working on the most during this time. Ensuring my clients are pre-approved with a great lender and ready to go if they find something they love and would like to submit an offer is what is the key to my buyers success!

Prepping my sellers and getting their homes priced right so they get multiple offers is what helps their home sell within a week. From staging to photos, videos and 3D tours, I will be able to provide you the highest level of service from any listing agent in the Bay Area. The amounts of listings I have sold over the past year has been exponential. We are in a seller’s market at this time with a very low inventory count.

Meaning that we usually get multiple offers above the listed market price, as you can see from this market update. Very low mortgage rates are the driving force behind this market, I will therefore be awaiting your call or email, as I am glad this Bay Area market update helped convince you.

 


Jessica Bermea 2020. All rights reserved.